With the Super Bowl rapidly approaching, many fans and bettors will be doing some last-minute research.
The goal is to find some golden nuggets of information to use for the big game wagers.
Hopefully, you will already be well clued up on what kind of markets and odds to look out for.
But even experienced football bettors should know that betting on the Super Bowl is not like betting on the regular season.
It’s important to know the differences and what to specifically look out for in regards to your Super Bowl bets.
The big game attracts a huge surge in betting from all around the world, but many of those recreational bettors will not be finding out about the teams involved. Or they’ll bet on the game the same way they have done all season.
This is a guide to how you should adapt your betting to focus specifically on the Super Bowl and why following the same routines as the regular NFL season might not help you make a profit from the championship game.
Big Game, Big Money – Choose Your Wagers Carefully
It is estimated that around $150 million will be wagered on Super Bowl 53 – and that is just the amount in legalized sportsbooks.
The overall total will be in the billions, so it is fair to say that the NFL’s showpiece game attracts a huge amount of betting interest.
That’s why the bookmakers have a field day coming up with more and more ridiculous bets every year to hook in the public.
The points spread, moneyline, and totals bets will obviously be as popular as they always are for NFL games.
Many recreational bettors are attracted by eye-catching Super Bowl prop bets, though, and will make several of those wagers.
Now, prop bets are not all a waste of time. Game-related bets – such as who will be the Super Bowl MVP – could be well-thought-out wagers that you will be able to do a little research on.
But betting on whether the singer will cry during the pre-game national anthem or what color hat the winning coach will wear just seem like efforts by bookmakers to get more people betting.
That’s because that’s exactly what they are. Although they can be fun, they’re not the best wagers for making money on.
So the first piece of advice on adapting your betting for the Super Bowl is to enjoy the prop bets but tread carefully.
Just because there are hundreds of bets available doesn’t mean that you have to spend money on them all.
No Home Field Advantage – Consider the Venue
If you bet on football regularly, you should know that you need to change your strategy a number of times throughout the season.
How you bet on the season opener is not how you bet on a late-season game – and that changes again for the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
One obvious factor that will not normally come into play with the Super Bowl is home advantage.
At the start of the season, all 32 teams will be hoping to get that number-one conference seed position so that they get to play at home throughout the playoffs. But that all changes for the final game.
Only the Atlanta Falcons had a chance of playing the Super Bowl in their own city this year, and that’s not going to happen now. The Rams and the Patriots will both be playing in relatively unfamiliar surroundings.
You can draw your own conclusions on how that will affect either team, or not. Realistically, neither team has any kind of advantage here.
That’s not to say the Super Bowl venue should never be a consideration, though.
For example, if a team plays outside, and especially if they are located in a colder area of the country, they could struggle if they have to play the big game under a nice, warm, domed roof.
It also pays to look out for teams who have possibly overperformed because they had a raucous home crowd at their backs. The Super Bowl is a great leveler, and the regular season and playoff results don’t ALWAYS have as much influence as you might think.
Experience Is Key
During the regular season, there will be games for every team where they are either much better or much worse than their opponents. These kinds of blowout games are great for the fans and are easily spotted by bookmakers when they are providing the odds.
But by the time the Super Bowl comes around, the two teams should be fairly even in terms of ability. There’s a reason why they’ve made it to the championship game, after all!
Lines and odds will tend to be tighter than earlier in the season, but the value can often be found by looking at the big game experience of those involved.
Looking at whether the teams have made it to the Super Bowl recently – and especially if they have been victorious – can tell you something. You can also take a lot from knowing how a head coach performs when faced with the biggest decisions in the biggest games. That applies for players as well.
It is not as relevant to look at the statistics or power rankings as you do in the regular season.
If a quarterback or head coach has led their team to Super Bowl glory in the past, then they have the experience that not many others possess, and that can be key when it comes to the crunch.
Don’t Go with the Crowd
Even in a league famed for its parity – and a draft system that does its best to keep that going – there are big teams who record big wins seemingly season after season.
With all the different types of bets, you can still find value in backing favorites. Doing so in the postseason is popular because it works more often than not.
But the Super Bowl can affect a favorite in strange ways. It’s hard to pinpoint whether it’s the pressure of the game – or from the fans – that causes favorites to underperform, but recently, that has been the case when it comes to the championship match.
So betting on the favorite might have gotten you this far, but on a more level playing field, betting the Super Bowl underdog can be the way to go.
That can mean a moneyline bet or simply going against the point spread. The takeaway is that changing your regular-season routine of betting on the favorite can be profitable.
One-Off Game – Multiple Bets
Normally, I would say that you should only bet on the value when you have done your research.
During the regular season and playoffs, there are plenty of games to inform your selections, so when you have identified a good wager, you can bet knowing that other games can cover your risk of one going wrong.
The Super Bowl is the only show in town, though.
There are no other games, so it’s a good idea to make multiple bets to ensure that you have more chances of coming away with some kind of profit.
This doesn’t mean crazily betting on any market without doing your research – but it is a chance to make a few different wagers so that there’s a bigger chance of a payout.
As with any football betting, Super Bowl wagers should be thoroughly researched first so you can be confident that you have found some value. But with this game, you need to think slightly differently than you would have throughout the rest of the season.
The Super Bowl is a special event – and that should mean you adapting your betting routine to fit with the occasion.
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