Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/29/18

12:00

Cake Weight Loss

Dan Szymborski:

12:00

Dan Szymborski: Greetings everyone!

12:00

david s: Where in the hell are the 2019 ZiPS, Dane?

12:01

Mark: Dan, can you give me a quick ZiPS projection on when I can care about baseball again.

12:01

Matt: Kinda weird how infatuated with the Yankees the Red Sox fans seem to be, eh?

12:01

Dan Szymborski: You can still care about baseball! Stuff is happening.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox and Yankees have a mutually antagonistic-but-symbiotic relationship.

12:01

Cesar: Do you think the Dodgers should re-sign Kershaw?

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the ask.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: If Kershaw wants, say, the Dodgers to extend it so that it’s 8/300 or something, I think that’s the point I walk away.

12:02

stever20: So Game 3 for LA- IMO that’s a clear case of LA winning the battle and Boston winning the war.  LA had to use so much relief that it killed them in game 4 which pretty much ended the series….

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I think people read too much into single events.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: What killed them is they played worse than the Red Sox over a five-game stretch.

12:03

bcb: Aside from an obviously bad decision, is Manny Machado really ‘dirty?’  Also, he has to be less morally repugnant a signing than Osuna or Chapman, right?

12:03

Dan Szymborski: To an extent, I’d say yes to the first question in that he does tend to push things a bit.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: And obviously less morally repugnant, though in the end, an axe murderer with a 1100 OPS will get a contract and a cancer-curer with a 500 OPS, because that’s the reality of things.

12:04

Xolo: What’s your best guess at a “wait, what?”/Hosmer-to-SD level signing this winter?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, DJ LeMahieu or something?

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think there’s as OBVIOUS a candidate for a hilarious overpay as Hosmer last year

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I mean maybe Steve Pearce or Wade Miley, but it’s not like someone’s going to give them $50 million.

12:06

Dan Szymborski: An overpay for one of them will probably be mild in real dollars.

12:07

Dbo: I tried a Seattle style hot dog this weekend with sauteed onions and cream cheese. Does cream cheese belong on a hot dog? What about mayonnaise on sonora dogs?

12:07

Dan Szymborski: Seems weird, but I do like cream cheese.

12:08

Bosque: Who do you think will be the best discount signing this winter?

12:08

Dan Szymborski: I can see Ryu getting underpaid.

12:08

JW: The Red Sox win Game 3 if Eduardo Nunez doesn’t get (accidentally) tackled from behind in the batter’s box, right? It looked to me like his ankles might have kept him from scoring on Vazquez’s double, stopping his momentum before going into the stands on the foul pop, and maybe even reaching third when Maeda threw him out (which was an awesome play). I ask not because I want to argue that the Red Sox should have swept, but because I want to blame my sleep deprivation on something.

12:08

Dan Szymborski: Very possible.

12:10

Dbo: If beans don’t belong in chili then do you think they belong in a separate but equal bowl?

12:10

Dan Szymborski: You can eat beans separately

12:11

Dan Szymborski:

12:11

Neal: Hi Dan. Think Scooter Gennett resigns with Cincy?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: I think he does and the Reds probably overpay

12:11

Tyler: Why were there no game chats?  Thought we would have had one Friday and also for the elimination game.

12:11

Dan Szymborski: Bother the chatters and the readers tend to get exhausted if we do a TON of chats.

12:11

Moltar: So lost in all the kerfuffle about conflicts of interest and lack of experience and why somebody would ever want to work for the Wilpons, are we overlooking the fact that the Mets just hired a guy named Brodie to run their operations? Brodie?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Some day, somebody with the first name of a state will be president.

12:12

Matt: Can you provide us any further insight in to how teams can replicate the Red Sox’s strategy of getting a bunch of really really good baseball players together on one team and then put them in a position to succeed? The whole concept is mindblowing.

12:12

Dan Szymborski: heh

12:12

Southern Bleacher Bum: Drew Smyley or Cole Hamels in 2019? Who has the better year?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Cole

12:12

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: So…we got six games of baseball in a five game series. Are you satisfied with the outcome?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: I prefer everything to go max games.

12:12

Matt: Isn’t a burrito bowl just a salad?

12:12

Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s a meat salad.

12:14

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What is the fewest number of one-for-one roster trades that the Red Sox and Orioles would have to make to lead the O’s to the World Series? I imagine it starts with Mookie Betts for Chris Davis as number one. Do the O’s get there with ten more? Fifteen? All twenty-five?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: Well, playoffs always involve some luck.

12:14

Dan Szymborski: But to get to the playoffs, I think you can get them there with everyone Wright or better.

12:14

Gob: The Dodgers are going to go berzerk this offseason, right? Ditto the Yankees?

12:14

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll go berserk in the sense they start doing dumb things, but I think they will spend aggressively.

12:14

carrotjuice: Who is better situated for 2019: Cubs or Brewers?

12:15

Dan Szymborski: Still Cubs. I love the Brewers, but the Cubs have a higher upside roster and a deeper wallet.

12:16

A Happy Red SOX fan: Some sports ‘analysts’ are saying this Red Sox Team is the greatest ever.   I say they are the best Red Sox team in the modern era.  Your Thoughts?

12:16

Dan Szymborski: Greatest team ever probably a little silly.

12:16

Dan Szymborski: But I think they’re the best of the modern Red Sox.

12:16

Dan Szymborski: The highers are higher and the los are fewer.

12:16

Dan Szymborski: lows

12:16

Bro: You suck

12:17

Josh in DC: If it were up to you, which pair of announcers would call the big games? Which network?

12:17

Dan Szymborski: Am I allowed to use Vin Scully? He may not want to broadcast games, but he might change his tune if it’s the only way out of the giant net.

12:19

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, maybe Jon Miller, Mark Grant, and occasional chime-ins from Petriello when data requires it.

12:19

bosoxforlife: Has this exonerated Dombrowski’s style of General Managing? Trade prospects for real players

12:19

Dan Szymborski: There is never a team direction lesson to be learned from any year of playoffs.

12:19

Jeff Todd: Just stopping in to see my competition talk about things he knows nothing about

12:20

Harper: He wants at least 10/$350. Think he’ll get it?

12:20

Dan Szymborski: Actually, no.

12:20

LFC Mike: Dan..your 1100 OPS axe murderer..has he bought into launch angle?..do the severed heads actually fly a greater distance?..or is he just chopping harder?

12:21

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think when you’re an axe murderer that head distance is important.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s mostly efficiency and keeping blood off your clothes.

12:21

Dan Szymborski: Hold on, landscaper at thet door.

12:25

Dan Szymborski: OK, back

12:25

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, you’ll get 4 bonus minutes!

12:26

Dan Szymborski: But if I don’t give the landscaper his check, I’ll have to do actual yard work myself, you understand.

12:26

hscer: way before 8/300 with that velocity, no?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to think about the exact obvious.

12:26

Xolo: Machado will be a hilarious overpay

12:26

Xolo: Your wife is a hilarious overpay

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I’m MARRIED?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Is this how you find out, some random dude in a chat tells you?

12:26

James: Is a Marwin contract comparable to what Eduardo Escobar got?

12:26

Dan Szymborski: Less

12:26

bosoxforlife: I had Eovaldi at 4/ 56. Am I high or low?

12:27

Dan Szymborski: Might actually be a little low.

12:27

Dan Szymborski: He’s one of the most INTERESTING of the pitching candidates that don’t suck.

12:28

Dan Szymborski: Even in the down market, Cobb got 4/57 and Chatwood 3/38 and Eovaldi’s more interesting than either were

12:28

stever20: 1 thing that was big IMO was the Red Sox roster construction- with only 11 pitchers(well, 10 plus Bucholz).  Allowed for 14 batters.  Boston was able to be really agressive with lineup changes as a result….

12:28

Park: Favorite ballpark?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Too much nostalgia for it to not be Camden Y ards

12:29

brad: Did Harper name his team?  IF he was serious, it would to me indicate either Yanks(boyhood team) or staying with Nats….?? If he was kidding, what is the point?

12:29

Dan Szymborski: Trolling is always good.

12:29

carrotjuice: The funniest overpay this offseason would be a careless team mistakingly giving Dixon Machado 300 mil.

12:29

Dan Szymborski: It would be the Royals

12:30

Dan Szymborski: and it would be 2/10 with an 8/290 after player opt-out which the Royals congratulate themselves for making because that contract will totally only commit them to two years! Totally!

12:30

Kiermiaer’s Pretty Healthy: So Dan…you don’t now have an offseason ..you think that excuses you from even modest housework?  I guess Galileo empties the litter box?  I would pay to see that.

12:30

Dan Szymborski: When did I ever have an offseason? I think my last offseason was 2002.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: I just have one giant litter box in the laundry room. Cats generally get along.

12:31

stever20: ___ % chance that Kershaw re-opts with the Dodgers for last 2 years/65 million.

12:31

Dan Szymborski: 25

12:31

A different Matt: Offseason started, so like Veruca Salt I want 2019 projections NOW.  But seriously when will we see them?

12:31

Dan Szymborski: We usually start them a week before Thanksgiving

12:31

Pie Eaton Contest: Do Kershaw and Price both opt out? Who gets the largest deal and most AAV; Price, Corbin, or Kershaw?

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I think kershaw opts out (or more likely, comes to a reasonable extension with the dodgers). I think Price doesn’t

12:32

Dan Szymborski: And Kershaw gets more in his extension than Corbin in his deal

12:32

GSon: you still aren’t able to do this..

12:32

Dan Szymborski: I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THIS IS REFERRING TO

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Is it referring to chinups? I can still do like…1…chinup, maybe 2 if I’m feeling sufficiently good

12:33

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t sound like much, but beer and a too-sedentary lifestyle means there’s a lot of up to chin.

12:33

bosoxforlife: Why don’t the Red Sox just roll up the Brink’s truck and offer Betts $350M/10 right now?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: They can probably get that in two years.

12:34

Dan Szymborski: Though I do think they could hammer out an extension

12:34

hscer: Do you remember when you first rejected beans in chili, or is it one of those things where the origin story has been lost to the mists of time?

12:34

Dan Szymborski: I do not recall honestly

12:34

Jon Heyman: Do you guys write original posts or just copy and paste Jon’s work?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: Jon has a projection system?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: Then again, I’ve never projected Kimberly and Krlly.

12:35

Wes: When are you announcing your signing with the Dodger’s analytics team?

12:35

Dan Szymborski: I have zero desire to work full-time for a team.

12:35

James: How long until this agent-GM thing blows up in the Mets’ face?

12:36

Dan Szymborski: January. But to be fair, 3 months is about as long as it takes most Mets decisions from blowing up in their face

12:36

hscer: Would Dakota Fanning count as someone with the first name of a state

12:36

Dan Szymborski: I think so

12:36

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t know if she’ll be president

12:36

Dan Szymborski: I’m not overpicky. All I ask from a president is just get along with people well enough so that my twitter timeline doesn’t suck.

12:37

romorr: So, not much news on the GK front in Baltimore.  Think the Angelos brothers were waiting for the WS to end?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: I’m hoping they wait for Colletti to be safely retired before an announcement.

12:37

Yo: Are your parents upset that you never became someone they can be proud of?

12:37

Dan Szymborski: Ah, that would be someone who doens’t know my parents.

12:38

Dan Szymborski: I had a fairly laissez-faire upbringing; it would not have occurred to my parents or my grandparents to steer me a certain direction or even push me towards any of their beliefs, whether political, religious, philosophical.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: My mom has her fault, such as endless phone calls that indicate that she wasn’t paying attention to something I previously told her (and she’s 64, so cannot claim senility), but she has always been supportive of me. My family would have supported me regardless.

12:39

Ryan : Which team is most in need of a full rebuild: Arizona or Colorado?

12:39

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either NEED a full rebuild.

12:39

Dan Szymborski: Arizona does need some retooling.

12:40

Dan Szymborski: And Colorado kinda has to look at their offensive prospects as a source of value, not an annoyance.

12:40

Sad dodgers fan: A NYer friend told me back in 2015 that the Dodgers would be cursed forever by Chase Utley’s slide. I love Utley and refused to believe it, but now I’m thinking maybe he’s right? Is Utley a bad influence?

12:40

Dan Szymborski: Don’t really believe in curses.

12:40

LFC Mike: How do the Red Sox improve for 2019?..That sounds silly for a team that won over 100 games..but do they try to improve the first base situation?..or look at second base?

12:41

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll eventually upgrade at first.

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Second, it really comes down to Pedroia’s health

12:41

Matt: Are you keeping the same chat schedule all offseason? Daddy needs his midday baseball chats!

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Yup. And since I’m an Official FanGraphs guy instead of their friend at ESPN, they can’t give away my time slot!

12:41

Dan Szymborski: Well, I guess they COULD

12:41

Dan Szymborski: But I’d have more of an argument to not lose it!

12:41

ResumeMan: Dan, I’m working on my own…well projections probably over states the case, but…I was wondering, when you’re doing in-season projections, how many years of legacy data do you factor in (for years before the in-progress one), and how do you weight them?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found much use past four years

12:42

Roger: Will Brodie Van Wagenen succeed as Mets GM?

12:42

Dan Szymborski: No, but that’s because I think the Mets organization is structured so that success for anyone will be very difficult over the long-haul.

12:42

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Epstein or Luhnow, in the exact role Wagenen is likely to have, would achieve success either.

12:42

Ichiro for CEO: Dave Roberts deserves: 1) No Blame for this WS loss, 2) Less than 50% of the blame, 3) More than 50% of the blame, 4) Almost all of it, 5) Too hard to tell?

12:43

Dan Szymborski: 5

12:43

Dan Szymborski: Who cares about assigning blame? Unless a mistake is predictive, it’s meaningless.

12:43

Rays: What should the Rays do in the offseason to improve for next year?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: I think the fundamental problem with the Rays is that their payroll is just TOO low. It’s one thing to be thrifty, but I think they do hamstring their front office to an extent.

12:44

MVP: Whose your AL/NL pick?

12:44

Dan Szymborski: I think it will be Betts/Yelich

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I think it *should* be Betts/de Grom

12:45

Dan Szymborski: deGrom

12:45

Dan Szymborski: I’m out of the voting rotation for this season, so I don’t have a vote this time around.

12:46

Dan Szymborski: But I’d absolutely vote deGrom MVP if I did vote this year

12:46

Dbo: How do I convince my friends that I’ve always been a die hard lifelong red sox fan after I just told them the Astros have always been my #1 last year?

12:46

Dan Szymborski: Money

12:46

Terence: Who needs more help in their rotation: the Cubs or the Yankees?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re similar. Cubs probably have more upside based on things going wrong unexpectedly

12:47

James: What is the range of possible results for the 2019 Red Sox?

12:47

Dan Szymborski: They will play between 160 and 163 games of baseball during the regular season and then up to 20 postseason games.

12:48

Trevor: Are you surprised the Yankees are shopping Sonny Gray when their current rotation consists of Severino, Tanaka, and question marks?  I can understand trying to deal him later if they’re successful in signing, say, Patrick Corbin, but doing so at the moment seems premature.

12:48

Dan Szymborski: Thing is, I don’t think they trust Gray at all.

12:49

Bork: Who you got, Bucks or Raptors tonight?

12:49

Dan Szymborski: Raptors

12:49

Bro: No rebuttal? You suck

12:49

Bro: You suck big time

12:49

Dan Szymborski: These aren’t good enough insults to merit one.

12:50

Dan Szymborski: I can’t even expend C material on those!

12:50

Slurve: Does the Pearce and Freese Postseason help the older “marginal” players get (better) contracts in any way?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: No

12:50

Morbo: Georgia Montana (first US president named after a state bonus points for the last name also being a state)

12:50

Fox Research: How much did the forced narratives help you enjoy the otherwise boring game of baseball during this year’s postseason?

12:50

Dan Szymborski: I ignore narratives.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: I would’ve preferred in both PRICE IS A CHOKER!!!!!!11111 and KERSHAW IS A CHOKER!!!!1111oneoneonetwothree narratives had been destroyed.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: But at least one was.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: My main interest in narratives is seeing them get eviscerated.

12:51

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Well…there’s no way that’s actually Jeff Todd, and also MLBTR and Fangraphs don’t really do the same thing even though there is a bit of shared market.

12:51

Dan Szymborski: And I certainly don’t overlap.

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I’m a writer, I hear things and talk with a lot of people. But I’m not into the reporting and rumor game. I’m an analysis/second-tier Photoshop guy.

12:52

Andy: I hope that state is Missouri.  ‘End the Misery – Vote Missouri’

12:52

Dan Szymborski: I’m still traumatized by overhearing a conversation in which someone was talking about buying something at “Amazin” which in my horror I realized that was how he was pronouncing Amazon

12:53

A. S. Maness: Big fan, Dan. Thanks for a great season!

12:53

Dan Szymborski: Maness is my official twitter archivist

12:53

Bork: Dan ‘too good to cut his own grass’ Szymborski.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: I do mow my own grass.

12:53

Dan Szymborski: But my weeding falls off once the weather gets unbearably hot

12:54

Morbo: Welp, Dan has been murdered and isn’t coming back.

12:54

Dan Szymborski: THIS IS DAN’S MURDERER. I WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AS DAN FOR THE REST OF THIS CHAT

12:54

hscer: Landscaping? You don’t just have artificial turf?

12:54

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want artificial turf unless I can find a modern one that will still injure neighborhood children

12:54

CamdenWarehouse: Dan talks about axe murderers, there’s a knock on the door, and the chat goes quiet. Is this a FanGraphs Halloween movie?

12:55

nerv: is eovaldi’s arm going to pop open upon signing for large amounts of money

12:55

…: Chatwood was also supposed to be an interesting pitching candidate that didn’t suck last year Dan.

12:55

Dan Szymborski: One of his TJ’s will stick!

12:55

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t find Chatwood as interesting last year as I find Eovaldi now

12:56

Job: Do you have a real job too, or just do this shit all day?

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Guys, this is my full-time job and I’m paid quite reasonably for it.

12:56

Dbo: Pretty sad news about Roman Reigns last week

12:56

Dan Szymborski: Yes, it was. Makes it hard to boo him for awhile

12:56

Adam: Also, if you’re an axe murderer, I doubt you care about getting blood on your clothes. If so, you’ve clearly chosen the wrong tool.

12:56

Dan Szymborski: If *I’m* an axe murderer, I want to maximize my axe murders which means minimizing the chances that I’m not caught for axe murders

12:57

brad: What does Boras gain for Harper by trolling?  It isn’t like there is a lack of hype around his client.

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes trolling for trolling sake is a gift from god.

12:57

Password: What’s your password? I’d like to login and write a good article with your name tied to it. It would be a nice change of pace

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Nice try! People will know something is up.

12:57

hscer: What do you think Alex Jones did from 1895-1902? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesal01.shtml

12:57

Dan Szymborski: Fought McKinley’s Deep State?

12:59

Wes: If your axe muderer bats with an axe and cuts the ball in half, do both halves have to be thrown to be an out or just one?

12:59

Dan Szymborski: Damaged baseballs are in play until the play is over

1:00

Dan Szymborski: So I would assume that you could throw out one of the ball halves.

1:00

Harper: Maybe he should sign with the NY Giants as a QB

1:00

Dystopian Future: It’s referring to “this” Dan, you’re a grammar, you should know this stuff.

1:00

GSon: Your damn job, bro. You can’t do it good

1:00

Dan Szymborski: I god, did I say good instead of well?

1:01

FA’s: When can they start signing?

1:01

Dan Szymborski: five days, no?

1:02

Dystopian Future: Please scrap the ZiPS projections and just have Dan post a video on Fangraphs of him doing chinups, honestly.

1:02

Dystopian Future: No baseball writing is original, all baseball writing is taken from the mind of our lord and savior Murray Chass.

1:02

Critics: Do you always get these critics in chats?

1:02

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I don’t mind.

1:02

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, too many writers have too thin a skin.

1:03

Dan Szymborski: Oh noes, somebody doesn’t like you! You get to make a living writing about baseball, so spine up a bit.

1:03

Yo: _____ will win the 2019 World Series

1:03

Dan Szymborski: A baseball team

1:03

Dystopian Future: Why do they say the Orioles are rebuilding? That would imply they have anything built, other than an empty Camden Yards.

1:03

Dazed and Confused: If it wasn’t for Ian Kinsler, this WS would’ve been a sweep!!

1:03

Adam: Regarding Red Sox improvement for 2019: their two main catchers were literally the two worst hitters in MLB. So there’s that.

1:04

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’m sure that they would’ve loved to have landed Realmuto

1:04

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: As a Dodger fan, what can I hang my hat on for next year? Is it realistic to think they will win the pennant 3 straight years?

1:04

Dan Szymborski: A hook is still best practice for hanging a hat

1:04

stever20: so 21 weeks from now, when we’re getting ready for opening day- what will be the biggest change in MLB?

1:04

Dan Szymborski: We’ll be a year closer to the time the sun destroys the planet.

1:04

Dbo: Cheesesteaks are overrated Dan, Italian beefs are way better

1:05

Dan Szymborski: Why limit yourself to one?

1:05

elfuego25: Who starts the most games at second next year for the Rockies? LeMahieu, Story, Rodgers, or Hampson?

1:06

Dan Szymborski: 4/70 for Dozier sounds about like the Rockies.

1:06

Matt: Am I in the minority if I think that Kevin Cash deserves the AL Manager of the Year?

1:06

Dan Szymborski: Probably, but he does deserve a lot of credit

1:06

Dan Szymborski: But he won’t get it

1:08

Walter O’Malley : Since 88 the Dodgers have reached the postseason 12 times and have never won. Is this the unluckiest MLB run?

1:08

Dan Szymborski: Might be something worth projecting out

1:08

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Who pays for TJ surgery? Is it covered by insurance? Do minor league players who get TJ even have health insurance?

1:09

Dan Szymborski: One thing that minor leaguers *do* have is that major league clubs pay for their health insurance

1:09

Dan Szymborski: and I believe most of their dependents/spouse

1:10

Dr. Torch: Dan I was looking at your projections on Victor Robles and I wondered if you ever went back and looked at a guy like Rickey Henderson (for example) and ran a projection on what his numbers “should” have looked like if the only data you had on him was the same age-relevant data you had on Robles?

1:10

Dan Szymborski: I’ll sometimes do retro-projections, though I dont’ believe I’ve ever done one for Rickey

1:11

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: It’s your chat, so you can do what you want, but why do you keep posting these jabronis telling you you suck?

1:11

Dan Szymborski: It amuses me.

1:11

hscer: what kind of music do you listen to

1:11

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got hipster indie rock/indie folk tastes and classical music.

1:11

Dan Szymborski: I’ve found that my tastes have generally grown softer, though I was never really into metal.

1:12

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ really go any harder than, say, Queens of the Stone Age or Titus Andronicus

1:12

Bebop: does it make sense at all for the Cubs to trade Russell to Miami for Castro?

1:12

Dan Szymborski: Not really

1:13

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Right now, the Mets have 40 players on the 40-man roster, plus a bunch of guys on the 60-day DL. Do you know by what date these players need to be added back to the roster? I can’t seem to find this info anywhere.

1:14

Dan Szymborski: I BELIEVE that 60-day DLers have to be back on the roster by free agent.

1:15

Derek in Little Rock: I wish you’d post daily ZiPS win expectancies somewhere.  I know, I know, too much variability but still interesting.

1:15

Dan Szymborski: Maybe in future

1:15

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Why all the narrative hatred? Can’t we just be happy people enjoy the games in whatever way they do?

1:15

Dan Szymborski: I mean in the lazy narratives that writers spread.

1:15

Dan Szymborski: The stuff that’s candy for the Shaughnessys

1:16

Scott: What do you think really was wrong with Sale the past few months?

1:16

Dan Szymborski: Arm

1:16

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: The only thing you murder is chats

1:16

Pete: Why don’t Harper, Machado and Kershaw just sign with the Yankees for $100M each and form a super team? It worked for the Heat.

1:16

Dan Szymborski: Collusion covers players.

1:17

Dan Szymborski: By the way, guy who’s sending insults, we see the IP address.

1:17

Dan Szymborski: Dude’s actually sending insults and then sending his own agreements with the insults.

1:18

JKD: “What does Boras gain for Harper by trolling?” specifically, it was trolling Yankees fans, who have been printing up Harper Yankees jerseys for years. And who he was never going to sign with. And won’t be signing with.

1:18

J.D. Martin: I know you teased at lots of big numbers for the Juan Soto multiyear ZiPS forecast; can we get a rough picture of the slash line and homers per year at least? I need his sustenance

1:18

Dan Szymborski: Gonna hoard that one for a little longer!

1:18

Cowbody Joe West: I know they can’t sign for 5 days, but they can sing anytime they want, right?

1:18

Dan Szymborski: Of course.

1:19

hscer: By the way, how many self-identified “writers” make a living off of writing?

1:19

Dan Szymborski: Fewer than would like to, for sure. It’s a very tough profession.

1:19

Adam: Problem was that they had nobody to trade for Realmuto. But literally any other catcher in baseball would have been an improvement on Leon/Vazquez

1:19

Dan Szymborski: True. Wieters may have even been an upgrade.

1:19

$40 Million: Who will be the first $40 million/year player?

1:19

Dan Szymborski: Trout

1:20

Purple Mays Haze: Are your ZIPS PAs/IPs role-agnostic (in that you just base it on previous years playing time)? Say if a team announces that a pitcher will be an RP (and has previously been an SP), do you lower the IPs in the projection? If so, do you “improve” the rate stats?

1:20

Dan Szymborski: I do have a button for pure RP and pure SP, but I try to keep my opinion out of it as much as I can

1:20

B.BimBap: I don’t understand how the Mets don’t want to emulate the Rays success and poach a GM from within the Rays org.  What is wrong with the Mets?

1:20

Dan Szymborski: They don’t want to emulate the Rays tendency for the owners to not be backwards and want teams to be run like it’s 1951.

1:21

Guest: how do you think MLB will tackle the low ratings for the WS?

1:21

Dan Szymborski: Well, for one thing, ratings have been in a slow, steady, nearly unchanged rate of decline since the 70s

1:22

Dan Szymborski: Problem is, there’s a lot more competition in entertainment than there was in 1950.

1:22

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d like the games to go quicker, but only so long as they don’t have to actually do much that would make the games go quicker.

1:22

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t know if that really affects the ratings.

1:23

Dan Szymborski: Even the NBA, which is having a bit of a moment now, didn’t have their finals touch any of the finals from the 90s, if I’m not mistaken

1:24

Teh Showz: Announcers: Patrick Stewart and Morgan Freeman. I can look up stats myself.

1:24

carrotjuice: Team that missed the postseason this season most likely to make it in 2019?

1:25

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cardinals will be fairly aggressive

1:25

Dan Szymborski: Arizona, it kinda depends on what they’re really doing this offseason. I’m not sure yet

1:25

Dan Szymborski: Philadelphia will do better

1:26

scott: Titus Andronicus! Did you like “a productive cough”?

1:26

Dan Szymborski: I thought it was fine on first listen, but it wasn’t an album that I was drawn back to listen repeatedly

1:26

Planet Dust: Your chin-ups comment reminded me of 8th grade, presidential fitness test. This one guy was talking about how he could do 20 chin-ups, but he was tired that day, so he’d probably only do…one. Gets up there on the bar, hanging there with zero upward movement but his face is going bright red. 100% effort, no effect. It was incredible.

1:27

CamdenWarehouse: It’s like today or tomorrow for 60 day DLers if OOTP uses a real schedule

1:27

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: THAT IS NOT ME SAYING THE ONLY THING YOU MURDER IS CHATS. THERE IS AN IMPOSTOR. I BET IT IS D.B. SWEENEY.

1:27

B.BimBap: Forst, Beane, and Melvin receive new “long-term deals” together today.  Thoughts on that?  I think it’s pretty classy that they do it all at once.

1:28

Dan Szymborski: They did a good job and it’ snice to keep everyone together

1:28

B.BimBap: But the Rays win with no money.  If you put the Rays mentality into a club with money you get the Dodgers, right?

1:28

Dan Szymborski: Yeah.

1:28

Analytics Addict : Should we expect to see the same kind of slow market we saw last winter, or is there a belief that that was an anomaly?

1:28

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the market for decent veterans is really coming back.

1:29

Roughneck Odor: In innings ads really bug me. you?

1:29

Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:29

Dan Szymborski: Those ads hit me when I’m paying attention.

1:29

Dan Szymborski: Commercials you can just kinda block out.

1:29

Dan Szymborski: When they’re in breaks.

1:29

Dan Szymborski: Which is, of course, why they’re doing those.

1:30

B.BimBap: Nelson Cruz signs with Seattle or Houston?

1:30

Dan Szymborski: I can see Cruz getting a one-year deal with a contender.

1:30

Dan Szymborski: A decent one-year deal, mind you

1:30

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think Manny and Harper will sign before the winter meetings? before Christmas?

1:30

Dan Szymborski: No

1:31

Pad Squad: Padres minor league system has very few impact position players after Tatis, Jr. They want to be the next Astros, but they’ll need their Bregman, Altuve, Springer, Correa, etc. Do you think they need to deal hordes of prospects in order to get impact positional talent back, or would you like to see them play it out?

1:31

Dan Szymborski: Honestly I’m not that worried.

1:31

Dan Szymborski: Some of the second-tier guys will work out

1:32

Dan Szymborski: Remember, Altuve wasn’t a hot prospect either

1:32

Dan Szymborski: They already have Tatis/Urias/Mejia

1:33

Dan Szymborski: The majority of Naylor, Reed, Edwards, Arias etc. won’t work out. But some will.

1:33

Dan Szymborski: Remember, it doesn’t really matter what your average prospect is. You get to pick the ones that work out as they move up the chain.

1:34

Kvn: I dont like the Red Sox, but I’m really happy for Steve Pearce.

1:34

Bill: You seen the black mirror where they force him to open his eyes and watch the adverts by pausing them and blaring sirens until he opens his eyes? Next year playoffs

1:34

Dan Szymborski: Please don’t happen while we have Skip Bayless commercials.

1:34

In Game Ads: I think they could work if they were visual only, or even a short live-read

1:34

Dan Szymborski: I like Buck having to say Grindelwald

1:35

Dan Szymborski: If I were a billionaire, I’d fund a movie called Fart Fartson’s Zooper Aventurenanigans so that I can advertise it on Fox just so Buck would have to say it.

1:35

Trevor: Game 3 of the 2018 World Series lasted longer than the entire 1939 World Series.  Pace of play is still an issue, yes?

1:36

Dan Szymborski: I think it is. A long baseball game is fine if it’s exciting.

1:36

Dan Szymborski: It’s just there’s too much down time in baseball, where nothing at all is happening.

1:37

Dan Szymborski: I think a little time pressure is a good thing. I think pitcher/hitter matchups are most exciting if they’re not moving at the pace of a 1920s kentucky stereotype walking to the porch with a mint julep.

1:37

CamdenWarehouse: Three hour games are fine, but they don’t exist in the post season

1:37

Anon21: a) Braves have a lot of money to spend and good reason to spend it. b) Braves haven’t signed a top-of-the-market free agent since Maddux in ’92.Which wins?

1:37

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Liberty is going to go nuts payroll wise

1:37

Dan Szymborski: The Phillies will splash a ton of money next few years

1:37

Dan Szymborski: I think the Braves payroll buildup will tend to be slower

1:37

Dan Szymborski: Their farm system is much deeper, too.

1:37

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to head off for another week!

1:38

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining everyone!

1:38

Dan Szymborski: The consensus is that people would prefer not to see the random flames for people, so I will not do any of those in the future.

1:39

Dystopian Future: Do you just fall into an abyss after these chats end?

1:39

Dan Szymborski: Yes

var SERVER_DATA = Object.assign(SERVER_DATA || {},{ playeridArr: []});

Read more: fangraphs.com

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *